Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season has finally arrived, with some solid divisional matchups featured on the Sunday slate. One of them, Packers at Packers (4:25 p.m. ET, FOX), provides us with a surprisingly good NFC North tilt that bettors are sure Vic Law Jersey to flock to given the tight spread.The first thing anyone thinks when they look at this matchup: Justin Fields vs. Jordan Love. Fields enjoyed one of the best rushing seasons by a quarterback in NFL history last season, while Love launched into the exalted position of Green Bay's QB after Aaron Rodgers got traded to the Jets in late April.These franchises each needed a change after last season, with both the Packers (8-9) and Bears (3-14) finishing in the basement of the NFC North. Chicago reinforced its offensive line, brought in two solid running backs, traded for DJ Moore, and improved its defense.Green Bay parted ways with Rodgers, signaling that Lambeau Field has entered a rebuilding period. The question now is how will these teams fare against each other.We'll answer that question and more as we dive deeper into this Bears-Packers Week 1 battle, providing you with the odds, best bets, and top props along the way.Spread:Bears-1(-110) |Packers+1(-110)Over/Under:OVER 43|UNDER 43 (both -110)Moneyline: Bears-120|Packers+100Talk about a tight line. No other game's odds have been set as close as this one ahead of Week 1, reinforcing the notion that this should be a very entertaining game. Oddsmakers clearly don't have too much faith in Jordan Love or the Packers' offseason as a whole considering they're making Green Bay an underdog against a team coming off a 3-win season.Of course, a one-point 'dog on the road in Week 1 might as well be a pick 'em. To get a real understanding of how close BetMGM feels this one will be, look at the moneyline. The Bears' -120 ML translates to an implied winning probability of under 55 percent, while the Packers' +100 ML serves as a 50-50 Nikola Vucevic Jersey coin-flip.The plus side: We're taking on little to no juice with either side of this moneyline. The negative side: We've got a lot more research to do if we want to come away with a profit. But that's why we're here!If you're going to bet the Bears, you simply have to bet their -1 spread at -110. Why take the extra -10 juice to bet their moneyline if both bets call for a Chicago win? The only way you win on the Bears' ML but lose on their spread is if Chicago wins by one point and you get your stake back due to a push and have accounted forjust four percent of all NFL final scores since the year 2000.Here's why we lean toward the Bears -1, besides the obvious fact that they're at home: they also have the younger, more athletic QB in Fields (yes, he's younger than Love!) with more experienceanda better arsenal of offensive weapons. They made changes to their o-line this offseason, traded for DJ Moore to get Fields a legit WR1, and bolstered their linebacker corps with Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards.Of course, question marks remain in the Chi specifically on the edge, in the secondary, and in the pocket. Can Fields take a leap forward as a pa ser and be a more complete QB? Will he have enough protection? Will the Bears get to QBs or force turnovers with consistency? This week, we think so the rest of the season, we wouldn't bet on it.A quick look at the Packers' depth chart reveals a ton of raw, unpolished youngsters. They have elite cornerbacks in Jaire Alexander and Rasul Douglas, but the rest of their secondary is suspect, at best. Green Bay lost a half-dozen impact veterans and replaced most of them with rookie wild cards. The Pack still has a solid o-line, but we're hesitant to trust Love on the road in the debut game of his first full season as a starter.We love Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs not to mention the 1-2 punch of running backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon and we don't doubt that Love and the Packers will be good once they have all acclimated to a few starts Chuma Okeke Jersey and established a rapport.However, we can't po sibly bet against Fields, Moore, Khalil Herbert, and the Bears. Head coach Matt Eberflus and offensive coordinator Luke Getsy will have Chicago ready for a big opening-week W at Soldier Field.Our Pick:Bet the Bears -1 (-110)The only moneyline of value in this contest is the Packers', a bet that would require Love to lead Green Bay to a road victory in the debut game of his career as a starting QB. Love threw 21 pa sestotallast season, and while he did complete 14 for 195 yards and a TD, it was mostly in garbage time.Plus, the Packers beat the Bears by just nine points when they last met at Soldier Field last December, with Aaron Rodgers completing just 18-of-31 pa ses for 182 yards and a TD. Fields finished that game 20-of-25 with 252 pa sing yards, 71 rushing yards, and a TD on a 55-yard breakaway. He did have two interceptions and he's thrown a total of six in four games against Green Bay throughout his short career but we expect him to be much crisper with weeks of prep for this season-opening divisional tilt.The Bears have improved mightily since then, while the Packers arguably got much worse. Even if a split from Rodgers was the healthiest thing Michael Carter-Williams Jersey for both parties, Love is a considerable step down. Nobody can quite match Rodgers' command of the pocket, nor the little fundamentals that he has perfected to pick apart defenses and buy himself first downs.Even against a subpar defense like Chicago's, Love and the Packers will be exposed this Sunday. The fact that Joe Barry still leads this Green Bay defense which needs structure more than anything leads us to believe it could be a bumpy ride for Cheeseheads at the start of the season.Our pick:We think the Bears will win on the moneyline, but you can get better value betting Chicago's -1 spread.The over/under on this game is too close to call. We've got the total at 44, projecting the final score to be 24-20 in favor of Chicago. Fields and the Bears put up 19 points on the Packers when these teams last met in early December, but these rosters look much different today.There's obviously a chance that both Fields and Love come out swinging and blow the doors off the over, but there's also a chance both young QBs get sloppy early and make some costly mistakes. We tend to think it will be an ugly contest with Evan Fournier Jersey a few big highlights but a lot more head-scratching moments. We're fading the over/under on this one.Our Pick: We'd slightly lean to the OVER, but ultimately, we're staying away from betting either side of the total.MORE:Justin Fields, QB, Bears OVER 179.5 pa sing yardsGetsy and this Bears offense have made Fields' development as a pa ser a priority, likely hoping to avoid going down the same road as Robert Griffin III, Lamar Jackson, and other mobile QBs through the years. What we saw in the preseason offered plenty of hope to Bears fans and Fields' fantasy investors. Chicago worked in a bunch of screens, quick pa ses, and cro sing routes that allowed playmakers like Moore and Herbert to show off their after-catch burst. Hey, YAC production works just as well as Hail Mary yards!Fields has easily bested 180 pa sing yards in two of his past three games against the Packers. The last time they met, he finished with 254 pa sing yards. In December 2021, he totaled 224 against them. Now he has DJ Moore opposite Darnell Mooney? This is a home run prop, and we're telling all the new SuperDraft users to smash the OVER!Use after depositing to get an additional $20 in free bets! It's a no-brainer, just like the Bears' moneyline and Fields to reach 180 pa sing yards.
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