Week 4 of the NFL season was very interesting. Favorites were 7-7-1 against the spread and home teams were 4-10-1 against the spread. While teams who were at least touchdown favorites were 11-3 against the spread entering the week, touchdown favorites went just 1-3-1 against the spread in Week 4! We saw some shocking upsets like the taking down and the and Jr. and the blowing past the . Are we in for more surprises in Week 5? Below, I'll give you my top five picks of the week. For the very first time this year, I'm going to be selecting all favorites. That doesn't mean I don't think this week will be uneventful, but I'm out to win money. Let's go ahead and jump in. Top five picks record: 11-9 Overall ATS record: 35-26-2 at Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (Fox/NFL Network) Point spread: Buccaneers -3.5 Both of these teams are 3-1 straight up and 2-2 against the spread. The Buccaneers did pull off their third straight win last Sunday, but their injury report is concerning. and have already been ruled out, is doubtful and wide receivers and Andre Ethier Jersey Scotty Miller are questionable. Normally, I would stay away from this one, but reeled me back in with his performance last week. The future Pro Football Hall of Famer threw for 369 yards, five touchdowns and one interception last Sunday during the Buccaneers' 38-31 victory over the . All five of those touchdowns went to different receivers, so it's fair to say he is getting comfortable with the new weapons at his disposal. Without a doubt it was the best Brady has looked in a Buccaneers uniform so far. As for the Bears, I really thought inserting into the starting lineup would have solved the offense's problems, but their lo s to the last week was hard to watch. Chicago does have a great defense, but I would counter saying that Tampa Bay has an underrated defense as well. They are physical and love to fly around to the ball, and they are ready to make a statement during a primetime matchup. This game could be close for the majority of the night, but I think the Buccaneers end up covering. The pick:Buccaneers Los Angeles Dodgers Jersey 28-20 Arizona Cardinals at Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox) Point spread: Cardinals -7 going to hold out in Week 5 and let start, so I hope you already jumped on this line like I . I could throw you stats about how the Jets are yet to cover the spread this season or that Murray has a 75 percent cover rate on the road in his career, but all I have to point out is that the Jets lost by nine points to a quarterback who was making his very first NFL start last week. The two NFL teams in New York have recorded exactly 1,112 total yards of offense so far this season -- which is tied for last in the league. Yes, we may have learned over the past two weeks that the Cardinals aren't exactly ready to win the Super Bowl, but they are definitely seven points better than the Jets. The pick:Cardinals 30-10 at Washington Football Team Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox) Point spread: Rams -7 I took the Rams to cover a large spread against the last week and it did not happen, but covering seven points is much easier than covering 13. Ron Rivera to bench for , and the move was confusing for several reasons. Haskins threw for a career-high 314 yards and rushed for a touchdown last week against the -- but more importantly, he did not turn the ball over. It appeared he had done enough to keep his job, but Rivera clearly thought differently. Allen may understand Rivera and his system better than Haskins, Julio Urias Jersey but people joke that Allen is the quarterback that got Rivera fired in Carolina. Jameis Winston led the league in turnover-worthy plays last year with 40.Kyle Allen had 34 on 150+ fewer attempts.If that's familiarity with the system, you can keep it. Sam Monson (@PFF_Sam) Washington is 1-2-1 against the spread this season with that lone cover coming against the overrated . All three of Washington's lo ses have come by double digits, so I'll go ahead and take the Rams this week. The pick:Rams 27-17 at Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS) Point spread: Texans -6 Bill O'Brien is officially out and a new era of Texans football is here. Since 2000, teams are 14-21-0 (40 percent) against the spread the game following a midseason firing, including 2-6 over the last five seasons. But, this trend is very streaky. There are times where a coaching change just knocks something loose with a team, and I think that's going to happen with the Texans on Sunday. When you take a step back, this looks like the perfect opportunity for Houston to finally get into the win column. The Texans had to face three playoff teams and a stingy defense to begin the season, and now they get a 1-3 divisional opponent that is coming off Max Muncy Jersey of a road lo s to a rookie quarterback. This Texans team has talent, and when interim head coach Romeo Crennel was asked what he wanted to see from his team this Sunday, he simply answered that he wants to see a . I think he's going to see exactly that. The pick:Texans 30-23 New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS) Point spread: Cowboys -9.5 I got burned by the Cowboys last week, but I'm going to give them another chance here. Dallas is 0-4 against the spread, but recent history indicates that is likely to change here in Week 5. Since 2000, 32 NFL teams have started 0-4 against the spread. They are 19-12-1 against the spread (61 percent) in their fifth game. Yes, the Cowboys have no defense, but do you really expect to explode for 40-plus points? The Giants average a league-worst 11.8 points per game. On the flip side, the Cowboys Corey Seager Jersey have the most explosive offense in the league (509.5 yards per game) and have scored the third-most points (126). Four out of the last six games the Cowboys have won against the Giants have been won by double digits, so I'm going to take a chance on Dallas again here in Week 5. The pick:Cowboys 31-16 Other Week 5 picks Steelers (-7) 28-20 over Eagles Panthers (+1) 33-30 over 30-21 over (+13) Browns (+1.5) 29-25 over Colts 27-24 over (+7) 31-24 over Chargers (+7.5)
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